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LEI-Indicator (predicting power)
Economy Remains on Strong Growth Trajectory Heading into 2019
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. increased 0.5 % in September to 111.8 (2016 = 100), following a 0.4 percent increase in August, and...
...a 0.7 % increase in July. "The US LEI improved further in September, suggesting the US business cycle remains on a strong growth trajectory heading into 2019. However, the LEI's growth has slowed somewhat in recent months, suggesting the economy may be facing capacity constraints and increasingly tight labor markets," said Ataman Ozyildirim, Director and Global Research Chair at The Conference Board.
"Economic growth could exceed 3.5 percent in the second half of 2018, but, unless the momentum in housing, orders and stock prices accelerates, that pace is unlikely to be sustained in 2019"
About The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S.
The composite economic indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading, coincident, and lagging economic indexes are essentially composite averages of several individual leading, coincident, or lagging indicators. They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component - primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.
The ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the U.S. include:
Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM® Index of New Orders
Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Index™
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Average consumer expectations for business conditions
AS LONG AS THE LEI is trending upwards in a sustainable manner, we should be positive for the near-time future development (statistics-source, LEI = a Crystal Ball? www.valuewalk.com/2014/08/is-the-lei-a-crystal-ball).
