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Black Swans 2016
Société Générale has come out with their list of what the bank considers to be potential “black swans” to the market.
France’s third largest bank publishes this list as part of their Global Economic Outlook.
Black swans are by nature unlikely and extremely difficult to predict. Still, the SocGen’s list is a useful way of understanding some of the upcoming risks in the market that could sway investor sentiment and opinion. In the latest edition of the report the bank still sees an excess of potential downside risks to the global economy. The greatest of these risks, ...
| Unternehmen/Aktie | WKN | (a) Preis Intraday 29. Juni 2015* |
(b) Stop-Loss Ideen (in EUR) |
Max. Verlust = Preis vs. Stop-Loss-Level (b-a) |
| BMW | 519000 | 99,63 | 81,72 | -18,0% |
| Heidelberg Cement | 604700 | 72,85 | 64,38 | -11,6% |
| SAP | 716460 | 64,27 | 55,68 | -13,4% |
| Siemens | 723610 | 92,20 | 77,64 | -15,8% |
*Preis in EUR per 29. Juni 2015 (intraday, ca. 14:00-CET); Alle Angaben ohne Gewähr
| Stock Name | Ticker | (a) price as per 24th June 2015* |
(b) Stop-Loss Ideas (in USD) |
Max. Loss = price vs. Stop-Loss-Level (b-a) |
| Adobe Systems | ADBE | 83.4 | 71.78 | -13.9% |
| Dollar Tree | DLTR | 80.6 | 70.77 | -12,2% |
| Fiserv | FISV | 85.0 | 73.11 | -14.0% |
| Ross Stores | ROST | 50.1 | 44.11 | -11.9% |
| Walgreens Boots Alliance | WBA | 86.2 | 74.69 | -13.3% |
*prices in USD as per 24th June 2015 (market close)
- Du Pont (DD):
SL @ ca. 73.89 USD - Oracle (ORCL):
SL @ ca. 35.81 USD - Wacker Chemie:
SL @ ca. 88.89 EUR
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Adapt your strategy if needed (before it's too late)
Always remember: Sometimes there is NO 2nd chance !!
"Lower Risk" - Strategy/Minimum Effort - Defensive Grade Stocks
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...
LTCM - Debacle (1998)
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... the ...
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...
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The oldest bank in the world...
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Ich war ...
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Black Swan/2008 Market Crash
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Travis Rice (Pro Snowboarder) on RISK
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Warum haben Anleger Angst vor Aktien,
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...welchen ...
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VUCA (deutsch: VUKA) ...
TEMPORARY Market losses are the one constant that...
...don't change over time - get used to it !
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This example above shows the mathematical probability ...
DAX, Dow Jones (Rücksetzer, "Drawdowns")
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Beim Dow ...
DAX im Okt. 2017 (& Q4-2017)
Q1-2018 (auch eingezeichnet)
Sofern der DAX im Okt. nicht extrem abschmiert, könnte es tatsächlich einen schönen Jahresausklang geben - SOFERN die 11.825 Punkte im DAX Performanceindex halten (sofern kfr. Absturz?). Zugegeben: 6% Plus oder...
... Minus im Monat ...
Meine 3 ersten Jahre an der Börse (2000 bis 2003)
Die beste Börsenschule EVER (!)
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...hat: ...
Der Anlagehorizont als
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DAX Aktienmarkt
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...
Tail Risks
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...over trade, ...
Geopolitical Risks
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...contemplate. The normal ...
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...experienced in ...
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...
Playing it safe
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So you may only need to take 86 instead of 100 shots ;-)
"the story ...
Small Swans...
(RISK)
Events labelled as tail events are not the result of unknown unknown, but rather known unknown. For example, the latest Global Financial Crisis (GFC) was at the end of the day not a tail event, but rather the product of mismanagement borne...
...both by the bankers ...
BofAML's Fund Manager Survey Sees
"Trade as Biggest Tail Risk"
link (Video):
www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2018-07-17
Is "Trade War" still the biggest market risk?
The chart below is remarkable because it demonstrates the top tail risk that fund managers fear. Tail risks, by their statistical definitions, are low probability events which can cause big problems. Naming the biggest tail risk...
...isn't a ...
(possible) Definition of Risk
in the Investment process (short remarks by Mr. Warren Buffet, made in the year 1994)
QUESTION
on how to define risk?
ANSWER by
Warren Buffett: Well, we do define risk as the possibility of harm or injury. And in that respect we think it's...
...inextricably ...
