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AAII-Bulls reading < 16%
(14th April 2022)
US Investor Sentiment, % Bullish is an indicator that is a part of the AAII Sentiment Survey. It indicates the percentage of investors surveyed that had a bullish outlook on the market. An investor that is bullish, will primarily think that...
...the market will head higher in the next six months. One of the highs of the bullish survey was in 2000 during the technology boom. This sentiment indicator reached 75% during that time frame.
Most recent reading as per 14th April 2022:
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over ...
AAII-Bulls reading < 20%
(16.Feb 2022)
Die Geschichte der AAII-Befragungen zeigt uns, dass einer sehr geringe Bullenquote unter den Teilnehmern oft eine positive 12-Monatsperformance im S&P 500 folgt:
Am Mittwoch, 16. Feb. 2022, wurde von AAII eine geringe Bullenquote von 19,2% registriert, wie man in folgendem Schaubild ablesen kann:
Somit kann man von diesem Tag an die dann folgende, historische 12-Monatsrendite ableiten, welche aufgrund der bisherigen Beobachtungen seit dem Jahr 1987 eben folgte. Bis zum Feb. 2023 könnte man somit mit einem Indexstand von > 4.900 Punkten im S&P ...
AAII Investment Survey
(15th & 22nd September 2021)
Since 1987, AAII members have been answering the same simple question each week. The results are compiled into the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, which offers insight into the mood of individual investors. Optimism experiened...
...a pretty shard drop in the last weeks hitting a low of ca. 22% Bulls in the last week. The latest AAII Sentiment Survey now shows a higher levels of bullish sentiment - but still below the long term average of ca. 38% bulls.
Optimism is currently at a low level and Pessimism continues to stay at a ...
AAII Investment Survey (24th September 2020)
Since 1987, AAII members have been answering the same simple question each week. The results are compiled into the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, which offers insight into the mood of individual investors. Optimism experiened...
...its largest weekly percentage-point drop since June 2020 and is now back at an unusually low level. The latest AAII Sentiment Survey also shows higher levels of neutral and bearish sentiment.
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, dropped by 7.1 %points to 24.9%. ...
AAII Investment Survey (19th August 2020)
Since 1987, AAII members have been answering the same simple question each week. The results are compiled into the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, which offers insight into the mood of individual investors. Pessimism among...
...individual investors about the short-term direction of the stock market extended its streak of staying above 40%. The latest AAII Sentiment Survey also shows modestly higher levels of bullish sentiment and a small decline in neutral sentiment.
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next ...
AAII Investment Survey (29th July 2020)
Since 1987, AAII members have been answering the same simple question each week. The results are compiled into the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, which offers insight into the mood of individual investors. Optimism among individual investors about...
...the short-term direction of the stock market is at its lowest level in over four years. The latest AAII Sentiment Survey also shows higher levels of neutral and bearish sentiment. Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, fell 5.8 percentage points to ...
AAII Investment Survey
17th June 2020
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, fell 9.9 percentage points to 24.4%. Optimism remains below its historical average of 38.0% for the 15th consecutive week and...
...the 20th week this year.
Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, edged up 0.2 percentage points to 27.8%. Neutral sentiment was last higher on February 26, 2020 (30.4%). Even with the continued increase, neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for ...
AAII Sentiment Survey (7th May 2020)
The level of pessimism among individual investors about the short-term direction of the stock market is at its highest level in more than seven years. The latest AAII Sentiment Survey also shows a drop in optimism and a decline in...
...neutral sentiment. Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, fell 6.9 percentage points to 23.7%. Optimism was last lower on 9th October 2019 (20.3%). Bullish sentiment is below its historical average of 38.0% for the ninth consecutive week and the 14th week this year.
...
AAII Sentiment Survey (12th March 2020)
The percentage of individual investors expecting stocks to fall over the short term is at its highest level in seven years! The latest AAII Sentiment Survey also shows a steep drop in optimism and a continued decline in neutral sentiment...
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, plunged 9.0 percentage points to 29.7%. The drop more than reversed last week's gain and put optimism at its lowest level since 9th October 2019 (20.3%). The historical average is 38.0%.
Neutral sentiment, expectations that ...
AAII Sentiment
Survey Results for Week Ending 26th Dec. 2018
Data represents what direction AAII-members feel what direction the stock market will be in next 6 months.
Half of individual investors now describe themselves as "bearish" for the first time since 2013. The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows greater polarization, with neutral sentiment falling to an eight-year low.
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, rebounded for a second consecutive week, rising 6.7 percentage points to 31.5%. Even with the big increase, optimism remains ...
Pessimism among individual investors jumped to its highest level in more than five and a half years in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Optimism plunged, and neutral sentiment declined.
Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, spiked by 18.4 percentage points to 48.9%. This is the highest level of pessimism registered by the AAII-survey since 11th April 2013 (54.5%). The large increase keeps bearish sentiment above its historical average of 30.5% for the 10th consecutive week and the 13th out of the last 14 weeks.
At current levels, ...
AAII Investor Sentiment
Pessimism about the short-term direction of the stock market is at its highest level in six months. The latest AAII Sentiment Survey also shows optimism among individual investors falling to an unusually low level. Bullish sentiment, expectations that...
...stock prices will rise over the next six months, fell 6.0 percentage points to 28.0%. Bullish sentiment was last lower on 4th July 2018 (27.9%). Bullish sentiment is below its historical average of 38.5% for a third consecutive week and the sixth time in the last seven weeks.
Neutral sentiment, expectations ...
Survey Results for Week Ending 27th June 2018
Data represents what direction members feel the
stock market will be in next 6 months.
Pessimism among individual investors about the short-term direction of stock prices is above 40% for...
...just the second time this year. The latest AAII Sentiment Survey also shows a large drop in optimism and a decrease in the percentage of investors describing their outlook as neutral.
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, plunged 10.3 percentage points to 28.4%. The drop puts bullish sentiment below its ...
The percentage of individual investors who described their short-term outlook for stocks as "neutral" is above 40% for the first time in almost two months. The latest AAII Sentiment Survey also shows a big drop in optimism and a rise in pessimism.
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, plunged 8.5 percentage points to 28.4%. The drop keeps optimism below its historical average of 38.5% for the 10th consecutive week and the 11th time in 13 weeks.
Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the ...
History 1988 - year 2017
Optimism about the short-term direction of the stock market has been below average for 40 out of 50 weeks this year in the famous AAII Sentiment Survey. Given this trend, AAII was curious as to how the year 2017 compares to the 30 previous years.
...tracked by the survey. So, AAII updated the historical analysis I've been keeping on unusually high and low readings (see the table) and then conducted calendar-year analysis.
Year to date, bullish sentiment is averaging 34.5% (including this week's latest reading of 45.0%). Historically, bullish sentiment has ...
The latest AAII Sentiment Survey shows pessimism among individual investors being at its fifth highest level of the year. The jump in pessimism occurred as optimism dropped. Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next...
...six months plunged 6.1 percentage points to 28.1%. Optimism was last lower on 31st May 2017 (26.9%). This is the 26th consecutive week and the 31st time out of the last 32 weeks that bullish sentiment is below its historical average of 38.5%.
Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the ...
AAII Investor Sentiment (17th May 2017)
Optimism among individual investors about the short-term direction of stock prices fell to a new 2017 low in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. At the same time, the percentage of individual investors describing their outlook as "neutral" is at a new...
...high for the year. Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, plunged 8.9 percentage points to 23.9%. The drop keeps optimism below its historical average of 38.5% for 17 out of the last 18 weeks.
Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will ...
Pessimism among individual investors about the short-term direction of stock prices rose to nearly 40%, while at the same time, optimism fell below 30%.
Pessimism is above its historical average for 11 of the last 12 weeks, while optimism is below its historical average for the same amount of time.
Details/"Streaks"
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, fell 1.9 percentage points to 28.3%. This is the 11th time out of the last 12 weeks that optimism is at or below its historical average of 38.5%.
Bearish sentiment, expectations that ...
Weekly AAII Sentiment Survey (8/9th March 2017): Pessimism surged to its highest level since February 2016. Past occurrences of unusually high levels of bearish sentiment have a mixed record of being followed by bigger-than-average six-month gains in the S&P 500.
Pessimism among individual investors jumped to its highest level in more than year in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. At the same time, the percentages of individual investors describing their six-month outlooks as "bullish" or "neutral" fell.
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six ...
AAII Investor Sentiment (1st March 2017); Pessimism about the short-term direction of stock prices rose to a post-election high, though optimism remains near its historical average.
Pessimism among individual investors about the short-term direction of stock prices is at its highest level in more than four months. At the same time, optimism is near, though slightly below, its long-term average. The survey period runs from Thursday (23rd Feb. 2017) through Wednesday (1st March 2017). Most of the votes were recorded before Wed. (1st March 2017), when the Dow Jones Industrial average rose ...
AAII Investor Sentiment (20th Oct. 2016)
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, fell last week 3.3 percentage points to 25.5%. This week, that gauge fell more than 1.7% to reach only 23.7%.
The drop of ca. 1.7% puts optimism below its historical average of 38.5% for the 50th consecutive week and the 83rd out of the past 85 weeks! In this respect we should also be reminded that bull markets USUALLY (!) don't end in such a pessimistic environment...
AAII Investor Sentiment (Sep. 2016)
The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey has become a widely followed measure of the mood of individual investors. Pessimism rose to its highest level since last June, while neutral sentiment fell to a level not seen since February 2016.
Pessimism jumped to a three-month high as more than one out of three individual investors described their short-term outlook as "bearish" in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. At the same time, neutral sentiment fell to its lowest level since February 2016. Bullish sentiment is also lower. Please find following details, ...
AAII-Bullish Investor Sentiment vs. S&P 500
(07/2011 - 5th Aug. 2016)
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, declined 1.5 percentage points to 29.8% as per 4th August. Optimism was last lower on 29th June 2016 (28.9%).
This is the 39th consecutive week and the 72nd out of the past 74 weeks with a bullish sentiment reading below its historical average of 38.5%!
Neutral sentiment is back at an unusually high level. At the same time, fewer than 30% of individual investors describe their short-term outlook as "bullish," for the first time ...
AAII Investor Sentiment (Bulls: LT-LOW)
The percentage of individual investors optimistic about short-term gains occurring in the stock market is at its lowest level in 11 years (17.8%). This is the lowest level of optimism recorded by that survey since 14th April 2005 (16.5%).
At the same time, the percentage of investors describing their outlook as neutral is at its highest level in 16 years, according to the latest AAII Sentiment Survey.
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, declined 1.6 percentage points to 17.8%. It is the 29th ...
AAII Investor Sentiment vs. S&P 500 (2009-2016)
Optimism among individual investors about the short-term direction of stock prices remained at a three-month low according to the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Pessimism is at an 11-week high, and neutral sentiment edged higher.
chart-source: www.bespokepremium.com
♦ Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, fell 1.9 percentage points to 20.4%. Optimism was last lower on February 11, 2016 (19.2%). This is the 27th consecutive week and the 60th out of the past 62 weeks that bullish sentiment has ...
AAII Sentiment / 8week-Average (LongTerm-LOW)
The AAII 8-week moving average of bulls is below the 25%-threshold. This marks a lower level than in March 2003 and March 2009! The lack of bulls suggests, that a big majority may be betting on a big bad outcome.
My opinion: On average, the majority-opinion turns out to be wrong.
Still, this standard-outcome may just work, if everything turns out better than worse as it - most of the time - did in the past...
source: https://lplfinancial.lpl.com
AAII Bullish Investor Sentiment (01/2005 - 01/2016)
Each week, AAII asks its members a simple question: Do they feel the direction of the stock market over the next six months will be up (bullish), no change (neutral) or down (bearish)? Here the most recent reading:
In the graph above I put up the weekly bullish-sentiment-readings from 2005 up to 14th January 2016. Both the dates (April 2015 & 14th Jan. 2016) have one thing in common: a reading BELOW 18.5%!. Extraordinarily low levels of optimism have worked best as a contrarian signal for potential Long-positions in the broad ...
AAII Neutral Investor Sentiment (record streaks) & 1988 similarities
Time to recap on the bag of mixed signals of 2015. Therefore please find the AAII-Neutral-Investor-Sentiment-readings of summer 2015 right here below:
As per 9th July 2015 the 14-week streak of neutral sentiment readings at or above 40% (readings above 39.6% are unusually high) was the first such streak since 8th July 1988 through October 21, 1988.
But the 16-week reading of Neutral Investor Sentiment recorded on the 23rd July 2015 was the highest of such a streak ever. Before that occurence the streak-record was ...
AAII Neutral Investor Sentiment (2006-12/2015)
The percentage of individual investors describing their six-month outlook as "neutral" is at its highest level since May 2015. The surge in neutral sentiment occurred as both optimism and pessimism fell.
AAII Sentiment Survey (3rd Dec. 2015), text-source/adapted: http://www.aaii.com
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, declined 2.9 percentage points to 29.5%. Optimism was last lower on 30th Sep. 30, 2015 (28.1%). This is the 37th out of the past 39 weeks with a bullish sentiment below its ...
Investor Sentiment (as per month-end July 2015)
Text/charts - source: https://www.bespokepremium.com
The latest survey (Status/30th July 2015) of investor sentiment from the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) showed a large drop in bullish sentiment:
After climbing up to 32.5% last week, bullish sentiment dropped by over eleven percentage points to 21.1%
A bullish sentiment of 21.1% marks the lowest level since early June 2015 and the 18th straight week that it has been below the average reading of 38.19% since 2009.
The move in bearish sentiment was even larger, as ...
AAII Sentiment Survey vs. SPX (Q4-2014 - 23rd July 2015)
In the following chart a direct comparison (only) of the AAII-Bullish-Sentiment-8week-average versus the S&P 500, starting from the Q4-2015:
The intermediate low (bullish Sentiment/8week-average) was registered on the 2nd July at 26.38%, the current average as per 23rd July stands at 27.78%. Comment directly from the AAII-source: "Optimism rose to a four-week high in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Pessimism also rose as neutral sentiment fell to a five-week low." Further comments directly from AAII:
Bullish sentiment, ...
AAII Investor Sentiment (bullish Investors LOW @ 20%) versus Greece discussions, June 2015
in this context the short BBC-article should be mentioned, where the German Chancellor Angela Merkel has warned that time is running out for a deal to keep Greece in the eurozone. Speaking after the G7 summit in Germany, she said Europe would show solidarity but only if Greece "makes proposals and implements reforms". Earlier, Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis said it was time to stop finger-pointing and find an agreement.
source on the Greece-topic and short video: http://www.bbc.com/news
...
AAII Investor Sentiment (June 2015)
My Input with referring to articles of other authors (11th June 2015):
Contrarian investors should pay particular attention to the unusually low bullish reading in last week’s survey. There are about 160,000 AAII members. The typical member is a male, with a bachelor’s or graduate degree, and is in his mid-60s. The median portfolio size of members is just over $1 million.That makes the AAII Sentiment Survey a good proxy for the mood of the typical affluent retail investor.
Put simply, retail investors, as a group, tend to be very bad at timing the ...
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Roboter vermehren das Geld
Wer den Namen Bernhard Langer hört, denkt vermutlich zuerst an Deutschlands berühmtesten Golfspieler. Etliche Anleger kennen aber noch einen anderen Bernhard Langer - er ist Fachmann für computergestützte Anlagestrategien.
Bild-quelle: ...
Fear & Greed Index (three indicators selected)
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Investors are driven by two emotions: fear and greed. Too much fear can sink stocks well below where they should be. So what emotion is driving the market now? CNNMoney's Fear & Greed index makes it clear.
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Wissen ist nicht gleich "wissen"
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...in ...
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...
Investor Movement Index (IMX)
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TD ...
Fear & Greed (43 versus 69)
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BOFA Fund Manager Survey (Oct. 2016)
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More precise: The share of cash hasn't been ...
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"Made in Germany"
ist das beliebteste Label der Welt
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...
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Mr. Market
"Remember that the stock market is a manic depressive." (Warren Buffett)
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...
Home Bias versus Cosmopolitan
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...
Wie viele Gefühle hat der Mensch?
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...für viele ...
Der Marmeladenversuch oder
"Die Qual der Wahl"
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...
Artificial Intelligence and the
Investment process
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...technologies ...
Hippocampus and the
"Whole-Brain State"
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...still ...
Herd behavior
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It is particularly relevant in the domain of finance, where it has ...
US-Consumer confidence
"Consumer confidence increased for a fifth consecutive month and remains at a 17-year high," said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved moderately, while...
...their expectations ...
FLOW
Optimal state of consciousness
(Intelligent Risk-Taking "can" go up, Creativity goes up)
Flow ist ein Zustand höchster Konzentration auf eine Aufgabe. Fast so, als wenn du in einer Blase sitzen würdest; Du nimmst die Dinge um dich herum nicht mehr richtig wahr. Sie werden zum...
...
Konsumentenvertrauen (U.S.A.)
Conference Board-Consumer Confidence (Michigan Consumer Sentiment); Das Conference-Board Verbrauchervertrauen misst das Level des Verbrauchervertrauens in wirtschaftlichen Aktivitäten. Es ist ein leitender Indikator, da es die Verbraucherausgaben...
...
Ein guter Ratschlag von "onemarkets"
Guter Rat ist also doch nicht teuer...
Hier von www.onemarkets.de
Sollten trotz des Hitzewitters die -doch unvermeidlichen- Sommergewitter auftreten, dann bitte nicht vergessen: Obwohl der DAX in den letzten 5 Jahren angestiegen ist, hat er in diesem ...
Volumen bei vier Aktien
(exemplarisch für viele USD-Aktien am Freitag, 15. Mai 2020)
Das Handelsvolumen oder Volumen ist die Anzahl der Aktien, die die Gesamtaktivität eines Wertpapiers oder eines Marktes
für einen bestimmten Zeitraum angibt. Das Handelsvolumen ist ein technischer...
...
Blasen am Aktienmarkt als Zeichen von Kapitalmarktanomalien
(Märkte sind wohl doch nicht so effizient)
In medias res: Rationale/fast rationale Blasen & Intrinsische Blasen sind nur zwei Varianten von grundsätzlich vier "Blasenarten". Wir werden uns diese beiden etwas näher anschauen; Eine...
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Magic 3k-level (S&P 500)
and 25k in the Dow Jones Industrial Average
Just looking at the market in these times, one thing jumps out across the charts. S&P 500 and the old Dow Jones Industrial Average are near round number-levels today. What I mean is near...
...price levels ending in zero ...
Charlie Munger - RIP
With 99 years of age Charlie Munger, the right Hand of Warren Buffet passed away on the 28th Nov. 2023. Following short 33-Minutes long podcast (pl. click here below) was recorded in the year 2015, where Ten Griffin give us -also- some insights into the thinking of ...
