Private Investment

• Behavioral Finance
• AAII Inv. Sentiment

• AAII Investor Sentiment vs. S&P 500 (July 2015)
• AAII Investor Sentiment (June 2015) bullish reading 20% only!
• AAII Investor Sentiment (Q1/2011 - 6th June 2015)
• AAII Investor Sentiment vs. S&P 500 (2009-2015)
• AAII Neutral Investor Sentiment (2006 - 3rd Dec. 2015)
• AAII Neutral Investor Sentiment (record streaks)
• AAII Bullish Investor Sentiment (2005-01/2016)
• AAII Sentiment / 8week-Average (LT-LOW)
• AAII Investor Sentiment vs. S&P 500 (2009-2016)
• AAII Investor Sentiment (Bulls: LT-LOW)
• AAII-Bullish Investor Sentiment vs. S&P 500
• AAII Investor Sentiment (Sep. 2016)
• AAII Investor Sentiment (20th Oct. 2016)
• AAII Investor Sentiment (1st March 2017)
• AAII Investor Sentiment (8th March 2017)
• AAII Investor Sentiment (5th April 2017)
• AAII Investor Sentiment (17th May 2017)
• AAII Sentiment (23rd Aug. 2017)
• AAII Sentiment (30years - history)
• AAII Sentiment (2nd May 2018)
• AAII Sentiment (27th June 2018)
• AAII Investor Sentiment (25th Oct. 2018)
• AAII Sentiment Survey (27th Dec. 2018)
• AAII Sentiment Survey (12th March 2020)
• AAII Sentiment Survey (7th May 2020)
• AAII Investment Survey (17th June 2020)
• AAII Investment Survey (29th July 2020)
• AAII Investment Survey (19th August 2020)
• AAII Investment Survey (24th September 2020)
• AAII - Sentiment (15th & 22nd Sep. 2021)
• AAII-Bulls reading < 20%
• AAII Investor Sentiment bullish < 16%

Pessimism among individual investors jumped to its highest level in more than five and a half years in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Optimism plunged, and neutral sentiment declined.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, spiked by 18.4 percentage points to 48.9%. This is the highest level of pessimism registered by the AAII-survey since 11th April 2013 (54.5%). The large increase keeps bearish sentiment above its historical average of 30.5% for the 10th consecutive week and the 13th out of the last 14 weeks.

At current levels, pessimism is unusually high and optimism is unusually low. Historically, both have been followed by higher-than-median six- and 12-month returns for the S&P 500 index, particularly unusually low optimism...