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AAII Sentiment Survey vs. SPX (Q4-2014 - 23rd July 2015)
In the following chart a direct comparison (only) of the AAII-Bullish-Sentiment-8week-average versus the S&P 500, starting from the Q4-2015:
The intermediate low (bullish Sentiment/8week-average) was registered on the 2nd July at 26.38%, the current average as per 23rd July stands at 27.78%. Comment directly from the AAII-source: "Optimism rose to a four-week high in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Pessimism also rose as neutral sentiment fell to a five-week low." Further comments directly from AAII:
Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, rose 1.7 percentage points to 32.5%. This is the first time optimism has been above 30% on consecutive weeks since April 30, 2015. Even with the increase, bullish sentiment remains below its historical average of 39.0% for a 20th consecutive week. (! = my remark)
Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, fell by 4.1 percentage points to 41.9%. This is the lowest neutral sentiment has been since June 18, 2015 (40.3%). The drop is not large enough to prevent neutral sentiment from staying above its historical average of 31.0% for a 29th consecutive week and above 40% for a record 16th consecutive week.
Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, rebounded by 2.4 percentage points to 25.6%. The historical average is 30.0%.
near term history / Sentiment Survey: http://www.aaii.com
About AAII: The American Association of Individual Investors is an independent, non-profit corporation formed for the purpose of assisting individuals in becoming effective managers of their own assets through programs of education, information and research.
