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AAII Investor Sentiment
Pessimism about the short-term direction of the stock market is at its highest level in six months. The latest AAII Sentiment Survey also shows optimism among individual investors falling to an unusually low level. Bullish sentiment, expectations that...
...stock prices will rise over the next six months, fell 6.0 percentage points to 28.0%. Bullish sentiment was last lower on 4th July 2018 (27.9%). Bullish sentiment is below its historical average of 38.5% for a third consecutive week and the sixth time in the last seven weeks.
Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, is unchanged at 31.0%. Neutral sentiment is above its historical average of 31.0% for the 34th time in the past 36 weeks.
Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, jumped 6.0 percentage points to 41.0% (please find this record in the chart above = 0.41). Pessimism was last higher on April 11, 2018 (42.8%). Pessimism is above its historical average of 30.5% for the sixth time in the last seven weeks.
As stated above, optimism is at an unusually low level, though barely. At the same time, pessimism is at an unusually high level. "Final Reminder": Bullish sentiment readings that are more than one standard deviation below their historical average (currently less than 28.1%) have mostly been followed by higher-than-average six- and 12-month returns for the S&P 500 index!
