Private Investment

• Behavioral Finance
• AAII Inv. Sentiment

• AAII Investor Sentiment vs. S&P 500 (July 2015)
• AAII Investor Sentiment (June 2015) bullish reading 20% only!
• AAII Investor Sentiment (Q1/2011 - 6th June 2015)
• AAII Investor Sentiment vs. S&P 500 (2009-2015)
• AAII Neutral Investor Sentiment (2006 - 3rd Dec. 2015)
• AAII Neutral Investor Sentiment (record streaks)
• AAII Bullish Investor Sentiment (2005-01/2016)
• AAII Sentiment / 8week-Average (LT-LOW)
• AAII Investor Sentiment vs. S&P 500 (2009-2016)
• AAII Investor Sentiment (Bulls: LT-LOW)
• AAII-Bullish Investor Sentiment vs. S&P 500
• AAII Investor Sentiment (Sep. 2016)
• AAII Investor Sentiment (20th Oct. 2016)
• AAII Investor Sentiment (1st March 2017)
• AAII Investor Sentiment (8th March 2017)
• AAII Investor Sentiment (5th April 2017)
• AAII Investor Sentiment (17th May 2017)
• AAII Sentiment (23rd Aug. 2017)
• AAII Sentiment (30years - history)
• AAII Sentiment (2nd May 2018)
• AAII Sentiment (27th June 2018)
• AAII Investor Sentiment (25th Oct. 2018)
• AAII Sentiment (12th Dec. 2018)
• AAII Sentiment Survey (27th Dec. 2018)
• AAII Sentiment Survey (12th March 2020)
• AAII Sentiment Survey (7th May 2020)
• AAII Investment Survey (29th July 2020)
• AAII Investment Survey (19th August 2020)
• AAII Investment Survey (24th September 2020)
• AAII - Sentiment (15th & 22nd Sep. 2021)
• AAII-Bulls reading < 20%
• AAII Investor Sentiment bullish < 16%

AAII Investment Survey
17th June 2020

Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, fell 9.9 percentage points to 24.4%. Optimism remains below its historical average of 38.0% for the 15th consecutive week and...

...the 20th week this year.

Neutral sentiment, expectations that stock prices will stay essentially unchanged over the next six months, edged up 0.2 percentage points to 27.8%. Neutral sentiment was last higher on February 26, 2020 (30.4%). Even with the continued increase, neutral sentiment is below its historical average of 31.5% for the 18th consecutive week and the 22nd time in 23 weeks.

Bearish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, jumped 9.7 percentage points to 47.8%. Bearish sentiment is above its historical average of 30.5% for the 17th consecutive week.

Optimism is back at an unusually low level (more than one standard deviation below its historical average). Pessimism is back at an unusually high level. Historically, both have generally been followed by above-average and above-median returns for the S&P 500 index, though the link is stronger for unusually low bullish sentiment than it is for unusually high bearish sentiment.

The current level of pessimism reflects the coronavirus pandemic and concerns about the economy. However, some AAII members have been encouraged by the rebound in the stock market from its March lows. Other factors influencing AAII members' sentiment include the economy, corporate earnings, the November U.S. presidential election and interest rates.

Background info:
Since 1987, AAII members have been answering the same simple question each week. The results are compiled into the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey, which offers insight into the mood of individual investors.

The AAII Investor Sentiment Survey has become a widely followed measure of the mood of individual investors. The weekly survey results are published in financial publications including Barron's and Bloomberg and are widely followed by market strategists, investment newsletter writers and other financial professionals.