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Is "Trade War" still the biggest market risk?
The chart below is remarkable because it demonstrates the top tail risk that fund managers fear. Tail risks, by their statistical definitions, are low probability events which can cause big problems. Naming the biggest tail risk...
...isn't a prediction that it will occur. It's interesting to see how popular the trade war is in the recent survey as it surpassed every tail risks' popularity since the 2012 EU sovereign debt crisis. The tariffs are in the headlines partially because Trump's negotiating tactic is to explain to the public why America has been supposedly wronged by others. The tariffs have so far only affected a few industries, but the potential is available for a larger impact.
link:
https://vintagevalueinvesting.com/is-trade-war-still-biggest-market-tail-risk
