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Trade weakness to extend into second quarter, WTO indicator suggests
World trade growth is likely to remain weak into the second quarter of 2019 according to the WTO's latest World Trade Outlook Indicator (WTOI), released on 20th May 2019. The new WTOI reading is 96.3, exactly as it was...
...in the revious release in February this year, maintaining the weakest level since 2010.
In their April trade forecast, WTO economists estimated that merchandise trade volume growth would fall to 2.6% in 2019, down from 3.0% in 2018, before rebounding to 3.0% in 2020. But one should note, there are significant downside risks to the 2019 forecast.
About the Indicator: Readings of 100 indicate growth in line with medium-term trends; readings greater than 100 suggest above trend growth, while those below 100 indicate the opposite. The direction of change reflects momentum compared the previous month.
