Private Investment

• Statistik
• Economics

• Welthandel (2015 bis 2050!)
• US-GDP versus US-Stock Market
• US-Industrial Production Nov. 2015 (vs. S&P 500)
• US-Industrial Production Dec. 2015
• Global Exports & Imports (2010-2016e)
• Inflation oder Deflation (Jan. 2016)
• China/Yuan (CNY), Feb. 2016 (FX-Reserves)
• Austrian Economics (Definition)
• Economics-update US
• Bremain vs. Brexit Polls (22nd June 2016)
• Bank Austria Konjunkturindikator (Dez. '16)
• UK base rate since 1694
• Baltic Dry Index (Snapshot July 2016)
• Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI
• US-Recessions since 1929 & Stock-Returns
• Retail Sales In the Euro Area (2011 - 07/2016)
• Investitionsfalle 2016 (?)
• Zinsen & Inflationsrate USA (1800 - 2015)
• ISM versus US-GDP (1995 - 06/2016)
• GDP - projections up to 2060 (Status: 2016)
• US-Unemployment & S&P 500 (inverted correl.)
• US-Corporate Profits (- Q3/2016)
• U.S. Economy Briefing (Indicators, Yardeni R.)
• Consumer sentiment (highest level in 12 years)
• PMIs Global (Jan. 2017)
• China (2015 - 2025) & U.S.A. - Trade Relationship
• Welt-Index (>50%), Zeitraum: 07/2011-12/2016
• Future, who knows? (2016 - 2050!)
• Phases of the economy / Sector Allocation
• EMI, der globale Einkaufsmanagerindex (> 50)
• PMI & GDP Eurozone (Q1-2017, April 2017)
• LEI (U.S)
• The global middle class (2016 - 2028)
• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)
• GDP-Growth (Productivity Growth "inside")
• Chicago PMI & ISM-Index
• GDP Growth & Stock Market Returns
• Euro Area Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI)
• Baltic Dry Index (BDI), Okt. 2017
• PMI - Eurozone (2013 bis Q3-2017)
• China & Co. (Household consumption)
• India (GDP 2000 - 2016)
• US 10year-Treasury yield
• Quantity Theory of Money
• der "Weltzins"
• Asien (60% der Weltbevölkerung)
• Benchmark 10-year U.S. yield
• China Konjunkturerwartungen verbessert
• Adjusted loans to euro area households (euro area)
• Niedrige deutsche Investitionsquote (Status 2017)
• Maschinenbau (Auftragseingänge DE)
• GDP = C + I + G + (X-M)
• 5/5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation vs. Oil-Price
• Ausrüstungsinvestitionen U.S.A. ("CAPEX")
• FED Balance Sheet Reduction (since Q4-2017)
• The US 2-year/10-year spread
• Megatrend Urbanisierung (bis ins Jahr 2050)
• Empire State Mfg. Index and US-Ind. Prod.
• The U.S. Small Business Optimism Index (July 2018)
• US-Industrial Production (Aug. 2018)
• Houston, haben wir ein Problem?
• World Trade Outlook Indicator (WTOI)
• DHL Global Trade Barometer
• Using the yield spread to forecast...
• World Trade Outlook Indicator (WTOI)
• World Trade Outlook Indicator (WTOI), May 2019
• Blood on the streets -economy-wise- (Germany, Europe)?
• Recession Indicator (10 years, 2 years)
• Zweite Zinssenkung am 18. Sep. 2019 (?)
• MMT (Modern Monetary Theory)
• Schuldenquoten Japan versus "Rest" (Juli 2020)
• Realzins: Der wirkliche Zinsertrag nach Inflation

Next 10 years better than last 10 years (?)
Eurozone (Status: Q2/2017)

The Eurozone as a whole is around cyclical equilibrium, but this masks significant divergences between depressed periphery countries and Germany, where the economy is running hot. In response to ECB stimulation, growth...

...has picked up a bit, but inflation is still weak and below the ECB target. Nominal interest rates on both the short and the long end are around zero and are priced to stay low for years.

Original paper/link: www.linkedin.com/pulse/big-picture-ray-dalio