Private Investment

• Indizes
• S&P 500

• Valuation S&P 500 (March 2015)
• S&P 500 extrapolation April 2016 (May 2015)
• S&P 500 Short-term problems BELOW 2.067 (June 2015)
• S&P 500 (magic level: 2,131 points)
• S&P 500 support levels August 2015
• Biggest stock buyer in the US (2014/2015)
• Long-Term Trendlines (S&P 500)
• S&P 500 - neg. Aug. & Sep. - what follows next?
• S&P 500 (> 1.870 - level), 33-month average
• US-Industrial Production vs. S&P 500
• S&P 500 Index (Sectors), Fwd. PE-Valuation
• S&P 500 / PE-Ratio (Valuation)
• Post-Rate-Hike (Scenarios/History)
• Valuation S&P 500 @ 2,000 points (Price/Sales-Ratio)
• S&P500 after a possible (!?) rate hike
• Fed Rate Increase (16th Dec. 2015)
• S&P 500 & High-yield-bonds (correlation)
• S&P 500 @ 1.999,99 Punkten (4. März 2016)
• Quarterly Earnings and the US-Stock Market
• S&P500 Chartcheck nach ATH (HY2/2016)
• S&P 500 (Q2-2015 - 12th Aug. 2016)
• Sungarden Investment Climate Indicator (S&P 500)
• S&P 500 (Magic Longterm-Support: ca. 1.915)
• S&P 500 (Pros YE-Targets 2017)
• S&P 500 (magic 2.4k)
• S&P 500 ETFs (tiny insight)
• Periods prior Market Peaks (S&P 500)
• S&P 500 100-point gain(s)
• Kindergarden-Börse ("the 90s")
• S&P 500 ( > 2.500 Punkten)
• S&P 500 (SMA 255, SMA 200)
• S&P 500 Total Return (1998 - March 2018)
• S&P 500 (Möglicher Support bei 2.673 Punkten)
• S&P 500 (im Q4-2018)
• S&P 500-Indexlevel (magic 2.4k; Dec. 2018)
• S&P 500 (EMA200-weekly)-Support
• S&P 500 (Resistance-Levels), Jan. 2019
• S&P 500 - Kuzfristiger Seitwärtstrendkanal
• S&P 500 (Yearly Returns since 1950)
• 2.817 Punkte (S&P 500)
• S&P 500 @ 3k in Sep. 2019 (?)
• Magic GOLDEN CROSS (Jahr 2019)
• S&P 500 (2000 - Juni 2019)
• S&P 500 (NEW All-Time-High)
• S&P 500 > 3k (Status-Quo: 16. Dez. 2019)
• S&P 500 > 2.954 (No need to panic - YET)
• "COT-Report" (S&P 500)
• S&P 500 & Moving Averages (28, 30, 38)

 Below a historical breakdown of the 5% weekly drops and the subsequent performance in the S&P 500

From a starting point in the S&P 500 of the opening of 1,965 points as per Monday, 24th Aug. 2015, this leaves me with my best guess that the S&P 500 may end the year 2015 well above 1,925 points, in my view at least above 1,940 points (this guess is the only thing how I can employ a strategy heading into Sep. 2015 and Q4/2015).

This guess of course leaves a POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE from the Status Quo (S&P 500 @ 1,988 points per Friday, 29th Aug. 2015, market close) of 2,43% => ONLY if one thinks that the level of 1,940 may be the worst case for Year-End 2015.

In my view this gives me a good Chance/Risk-Relation well into January 2016 => As the 2,43% downward possibility has to be read in face of a potential upmove (> 7%) back to the All-Time-High in the SPX (being @ ca. 2,134 points).

If, however, the Index will fall & then stay below 1,910 or even 1,886 again - it may be time to take a break from the markets...

Personal view - given by Ralph Gollner (29th Aug. 2015)
historical data/source: http://www.bloomberg.com