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Periods prior Market Peaks
According to Subramanian of BoFAM, in the 12-month period preceding prior market peaks, the historical total return has averaged 25 percent. A 25% Rally from the Sep.-2016 Low would lead to an Index-Level of ca. 2,660 points as per Sep. 2017...
One should be getting more cautious on equity markets, but one should also note that some of the best returns come at the end of a bull market, which makes the case for maintaining some presence in the market. As mentioned above: according to Subramanian of BoFAM, in the 12-month period preceding prior market peaks, the historical total return has averaged 25%. The S&P 500 is up ca. 16% over the last 12 months, suggesting that some of those gains may have already been realized.
The following table shows the S&P returns in the year just prior
to every previous market peak:
