Private Investment

• Statistik
• Valuation

• US-Stocks (Valuation-History)
• Valuing Wall Street: Protecting Wealth
• Tobin's Q
• Global Valuation CAPE & Price-Book (selection)
• Shiller PE-Ratio (Feb. 2016) vs. S&P 500/Market Timing
• Price-Book-Value S&P 500 (history)
• Abweichung vom MEDIAN-Gewinn-KGV
• CAPE/Shiller-KGV (Jan. 2016)
• Magic Formula Investing (Joel Greenblatt)
• Valuation NYSE / Morningstar Tool
• Berkshire Hathaway (P/B-Valuation)
• EPS & S&P 500 (1988-2015)
• The Fed Model
• S&P 500 earnings (actuals & estimates, I/B/E/S)
• Rule of 20 (PE of 18.9 ok ?!)
• S&P500 dividend yield vs. 30-year U.S Treasury bond
• Dax-Kurs-Buchwert-Verhätnis (Juni 2016)
• DAX-Kursindex versus Kurs-Buchwert
• S&P 500, ROE & Price/Book-Ratio
• S&P 500 (Trailing Twelve Month Earnings)
• Cape Ratio vs. TBOND-Ratio
• Shiller PE (1881 - 2016)
• S&P 500 Forecast (2015, 2016)
• NIPA-Profits (S&P 500-PE-Ratio / Jeremy Siegel)
• Valuation S&P 500 (quick n dirty)
• S&P 500 ("fair") Valuation
• Cash Flow makes the world go around (S&P 500)
• DAX-Bewertung, EM-Bewertung (Q4-2016)
• Emerging Markets (Valuation)
• DAX bei KGV 29 (freaky...)
• DAX-Bewertung 1988-2010 (& beyond)
• Price-Sales-Ratio (P/S-Ratio), 1999 vs. 2015
• DAX-Rollierende 12-Monats-Entwicklung & Buchwert
• Kurs-Buchwert Europa-Aktien vs. US-Stocks
• Earnings Yield vs. Bond Yield ("Fair Valuation")
• Bewertung "Anleihen versus Aktien"
• DAX-Dividendenrendite versus...
• Bewertung Europa-Aktien versus US-Aktien
• S&P 500 Valuation (HY2 / 2017)
• Free Cash Flow (Yield)
• DAX - Bewertungsbänder
• Biotech (risky sector, but LT-prospects)
• Value - "Comeback" (?)
• y2k Tech-Bubble Peak versus US-Stock Market
• S&P 500 earnings (growth)
• MOAT, then management, but ALWAYS: Price
• Cash Flow Yield
• US-10 year T-Bond & US-Equities-Valuation
• S&P 500 Forward PE (and IT ; -)
• Mögliche DAX Renditen (2018 bis 2026 / 2031)
• S&P 500 - Index-earnings (April 2018)
• PE-Ratio NASDAQ-100 (July 2018)
• Price-Earnings Ratio S&P 500 (PE-Ratio S&P 500)
• Austrian Stock Market (Valuation / PE-Ratio)
• DD-Model (S&P 500, earnings & 10YR-treasuries)
• DDM S&P 500 (May 2019)
• Dekaden (Fokus: 1950 - 2019)
• Valuation matters (2019 versus 1999)
• Dividend Discount Model S&P 500 (potential fair value)
• DAX-Stand von unter 10.000 (13. März 2020)
• Valuation US-Stock-Market (March 2020)
• Fed Balance sheet and the S&P 500 (April 2020)
• Free Cash Flow (ADBE, AMZN, FB, NVDA, PYPL)
• Excess CAPE Yield (ECY)
• DAX-Potenzial im Jahr 2022
• S&P 500 "Fair-Value Model" (Cost of Capital ca. 8%)

S&P 500 Fair Value (Based on Fwd-Earnings)

When interest rates were between 4% and 6% in the timeframe 1955 until the year 2014, the stock market traded at an average P/E of 20.4x (P/E = Price-Earnings Ratio). If you put standard deviation bands around the cluster, the range would...

...be 16.6x - 26.6x for one standard deviation.